Monday, July 7, 2014

More Heat Forecast for Current Week, Last Week Cooler than Expected

Well, last week's forecast for major heat did not materialize.  Actuals came in much lower than forecast, at 73CDD.  The current week is expected to be warmer than normal, at 85 CDD vs a normal of 71.
Cooling Degree Day Report

On a state by state basis for the major gas consuming states, Florida and California look warm, with Texas and Louisiana near normal.

Strong Nuclear Power Output Offsetting Natural Gas Demand

With all but one nuclear reactor generating near 100% today, output is surpassing last year for the tenth day in a row, averaging nearly 1/2 BCF of natural gas demand offset.  This differential should shrink over the next two months, since output cannot improve much from here.  The nuclear fleet is performing near perfectly, and barring unplanned outages should help suppress natural gas demand this summer.
Nuclear Power Report

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Wind Generation in Texas (ERCOT Region)

The month of June ended with very steady and strong wind generation in Texas, as output held near 9,000 MW for four days straight.  That helped June average 5.45 GW of wind output, vs 4.70 GW last year and 3.66 GW in 2012.

With significant additional generating resources installed at the beginning of the year, output should reflect that capacity growth through the summer, though July-Sep is historically low.

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report: +100 BCF (Near Expectations)

While today's storage injection of 100 BCF did not surprise, gas prices did, rising about 4 to 5 cents after the news:
Natural Gas Weekly Storage Report

Storage comparisons tightened considerably, as the deficit to the 5 year average shrank by 32 BCF to a -790 BCF level, and storage is now 666 BCF below last year, declining by 24 BCF this week.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Western Canada: Natural Gas Production and Storage Rebounding

June has seen Alberta NG production spike after a maintenance curtailment, and is currently running 800MMCF above last year.  This is helping storage recover, despite exports to the US that match 2013.